In 2008, the National average diesel fuel price peaked at over $4.70 in July. At that time, these rising diesel fuel prices occurred during a continued weakness in freight volume, which resulted in 2008 being one of the worst years in the transportation industry with minimal relief seen in 2009. In fact, over 3,000 trucking companies went out of business. Today, estimates project rising diesel fuel costs to be close to $4.00 by mid-2011 with a possible cumulative impact that extends into 2012 with prices again close to $5.00.
Yes, there was a lot more going on in 2008 than just these rising fuel prices… kind of reminds me of now, except today we have a weakened economy slowly showing signs of improvement and gradually increasing consumer confidence. Of course, this does not give a lot of lead way for the possibility of the housing market to fall into another downward spiral, for unemployment numbers to remain at similar levels where they are now over the course of 2011, for the oil supply to continue being focused on importing while drilling remains on a permatorium (is that an official word), and the list goes on… we haven’t even talked about the Middle East (at least not directly)…
But, let’s look again at those escalating fuel costs projected for this year and the next. Learning from some of the lessons in 2008, many trucking companies were slow to react with fuel surcharges. Although many anticipate a faster reaction to these rising costs for this time around, transportation business owners do not believe that these surcharges alone can help recover these diesel fuel costs and resulting losses. This comes at a time when trucking companies are looking to replace equipment as they have spent the last few years getting through with what they have. Now, it’s time to update their fleets and meet new regulation requirements. Financing for these fleets may continue to be a challenge though.
Another potential for concern as prices continue to rise is the impact to shippers which affect several industries. Could fuel usage patterns force shippers to consider such options as bringing manufacturing sources closer to their facilities? Could consumers start pulling back on other spending and becoming more frugal once again? What impact will all of this have on the economy for small to mid-sized businesses, lenders and the factoring community?
There was only minimal growth through 2008; the factoring industry grew only 0.5% from 2007. The question for now: what does all this mean for the rest of 2011? What kind of growth can be expected for this year and the next? One can only look to make assumptions, which may not necessarily end up in a good place. Assumptions usually do not…
What do I get out of all the projections for the rest of this year? “Warning, Will Robinson…” Proceed with caution. Continue staying focused on your portfolios, especially on debtor credit, concentrations and debtor payment patterns. Be sure to look at background reports on owners and research other companies for alter egos or related companies. Be diligent in watching for early warning signs and identifying red flags to prevent fraud or mitigate potential losses. And, just in case, it never hurts to be lean (not necessarily mean). Continue looking for ways to become more efficient and keeping costs down in your operations.
Wishing you success. The Factor Guru.


